|
Mortgage News |
Economist panel raises U.S. growth forecasts WASHINGTON, Feb 17 (Reuters) - The U.S. economy should expand a solid 4.6 percent in 2004, helped by a surge in exports driven by the weaker dollar, and the job market should start to brighten, a panel of business economists said on Tuesday. The National Association for Business Economics panel of 32 professional forecasters predicted in its latest survey that U.S. payrolls should expand by 1.1 percent this year, or an average of 150,000 jobs a month. The panel expects the unemployment rate -- currently at 5.6 percent -- to stand at 5.6 percent at the end of 2004, then fall to 5.3 percent at the end of 2005. "The NABE panel overwhelmingly felt that the job market outlook would improve this year, with 31 percent saying it was already improving substantially and 59 percent saying it was on the verge of improvement," NABE said in releasing its February outlook survey. The economists raised their outlook for this year's growth in U.S. gross domestic product to 4.6 percent from a November forecast for an advance of 4.5 percent. The U.S. economy grew 3.1 percent last year, according to government data. The NABE panel said it was basing this higher forecast on its expectations that U.S. exports would climb by 10 percent this year, up from a forecast of 7.5 percent export growth the economists made in November. "One possible explanation for the changing outlook on trade is the weakening of the U.S. dollar ... The value of the dollar has fallen nearly 50 percent since its historic peak against the euro and that decline will continue to affect trade patterns for some time," the panel said. It said more than 45 percent of the economists surveyed expected the dollar's slide against the euro to end around mid-year. However, about 20 percent of the panelists did not expect a trough in the dollar-euro rate until 2005 or later. NABE's forecast of short-term interest rates does not seem to indicate a significant tightening of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy is looming -- despite the central bank's decision to remove from its policy statement the phrase "considerable period" regarding its view that interest rates could stay low. Yields on three-month Treasury bills are expected to rise by 62 basis points this year, slightly less than was expected in the November survey. More significant increases in interest rates were seen in 2005, however. The panel said business fixed investment should climb by nearly 10 percent in 2004, helping sustain strong productivity growth of about 3.9 percent this year -- cooler than the recent 8 percent pace but still high by historical standards. Surging U.S. productivity has been a double-edged sword, allowing employers to boost output without taking on new workers. While the gains help boost economic growth and expand living standards, they have dampened hiring. Back to Original Article: News You Can Use
Continue with:Riding High In 'Jobless Recovery'Trade Deficit Swells 17.1% To Record $489 Bil In '03Bush Spending Yet To Alienate The Hard CoreDollar dips; Trichet's comment fall on deaf earsGerman Investor Confidence Fell for Second Month in February as Euro Rose8 big mortgage mistakes and how to avoid themMortgage refinancing frenzy stillsEconomy May Work in Bush's FavorEconomy May Work in Bush's Favor Part TwoThe Business of TaxesIndustrial Production Jumps 0.8 PercentIndustrial Production Jumps 0.8 PercentTokyo Stocks End Higher, Dollar Up on YenCan retraining offset rush of jobs offshore?Should rental house investor sell to tenant?Why 'better late than never' doesn't apply to rentAmericans may need to go on 'borrowing diet'Reports stir hopes of U.S. factory revival
|